Happy New Year – or not?

I am talking tax years – I guess I am slightly autistic which may not be a bad thing given my profession.  In this issue I look at the effects of the war in Iran and how to handle it from an investment perspective.

Markets Commentary

Donald, War, Oil - a perfect storm. 

Iran War – Investing Response

The US-Israeli war with Iran has created significant headwinds for global investors. The Strait of Hormuz closure affects 38% of global seaborne crude oil, driving an acute energy shock that has reshaped markets. Asia and Europe are most vulnerable as heavy energy importers. Inflation is on the risk and (according to the press), stagflation may follow.

• What to do? In spite of the media making hay whilst (their idea of) the sun shines, our average portfolios have been resilient – the majority are up over the last six and also twelve months. We have achieved this through diversity – lots of eggs and baskets – investing throughout the World and into differing sectors. 

  
  

• What not to do? Panic and take your money out now – unless you really need it. Best in our opinion to wait until the World has a period of relative normalcy and if you need money out, or to change your risk profile, do it then. 

SUMMARY

Sometimes doing nothing is the right thing to do. We believe that is the case currently. This approach has worked for son number #1 for years – other people worry about stuff and end up doing it for him. I must admit that ‘don’t worry, be happy’ (in the words of the song) have worked for him. 

Update

As I write this there has been announced a 14 day ‘truce’. I expect markets to rally but doubtless there will be some setbacks ahead. My comments above still apply.

p.s. And from our compliance department: This newsletter is for information purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice - especially since we are not charging you for it.