The Silicon Seer

I have written this newsletter with input from AI – not yet ready to take over from the humans I feel – especially after interacting with AI ‘chatbots ‘on a financial website…

Markets Commentary

Rachel Reeves and the Budget.  Normally I take a global view, but this will impact us all: in summary we (UK plc) spend too much. We need to spend less or raise taxes. In my opinion the only ‘easy’ way to do this is to put 2% on VAT but then I am not seeking electoral approval.

AI Winners

Nvidia – the pickaxe seller in the gold rush. Tesla – robotaxis and Elon back in harness.  ChatGPT – BUY BUY BUY.   [AI wrote this bit]

Technology has driven markets for the last few decades, from personal computers to mobile phones.  AI is a bit like ‘super Google’ and will transform society, but it requires lots of computational power to do so; however, as chips improve and power consumption related to AI falls its use will likely take over from Google.

Bung money into AI companies?  Already happening but the market treats every headline like breaking news from the future. One research paper claiming GPT-5 will achieve consciousness sends stocks soaring 20%. A regulatory rumour drops them 15% before lunch. It's beautifully chaotic, humans reacting emotionally to rational technological progress. Every AI breakthrough triggers both euphoria ("This changes everything!") and terror ("The robots are coming!").

SUMMARY

Our view of AI is to use it as a second brain – to get analysis and opinion on what we propose. From an investment perspective it is a nightmare for the day traders due to its volatility but for those in it for the long haul (such as our clients) it cannot be ignored. 

p.s. I (Steve) asked AI about investing in Cryptocurrency: Error 404: Prediction not found. Please try again after the next Elon tweet…

p.p.s Until AI becomes more energy efficient it is expected electricity use in the US will more than double between 2023 – 2028. Our energy consumption has fallen by about this percentage over the last five years as our kids have left home.

Our compliance department has caught up with us: This newsletter is for information purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.